Forecasting Palm Oil production in Malaysia

Essay by 33a33b33cUniversity, Master'sA-, April 2008

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Forecasting demand of a product or service is very important for most businesses. Most of the large business companies have some sort of forecasting technique that they use to try to predict the demand in future. The majority of small business companies also have a forecasting method, but it may not be as advanced as the one the larger corporations are using. A sales forecast is defined as the amount of a product the company actually expects to sell during a specific period at a specified level of marketing activities. Businesses use the forecasts for planning, organizing, implementing, and controlling their activities. Companies forecast demand to save money. If a business can come close to predicting the demand of their products they can focus their attention to other important aspects of the operation process.

It is very important for each company to forecast their sales or demands. They must evaluate what its needs are and choose the one that best fits its needs.

The evaluation must include cost, time, and the type of business being run. Forecasting sales or demands demand properly can lead to money and time saved on the job. If the proper forecasting is done it can lead to the company prospering and even expanding to new heights.

PROBLEM DEFINITION3.1To gain knowledge of forecasting techniques and their application in forecasting a variable.

3.2The significant performance of the palm oil industry has shown an inconsistency of the production and instability of the palm oil prices. This has made the forecasting task of the production and prices difficult.

3.3A reliable forecast is essential to the market participants to minimize uncertainties and hence losses.

3.4To forecast monthly production of palm oil using the time series and econometric techniques.

3.5To evaluate the forecasting result and analyze the accuracy of the forecast...